The Impossibility, Live
Three fair-sounding promises, and the arithmetic that forbids all three
What your child can do at the end
State the identity linking false positive rate, base rate, precision and true positive rate
The brief
Equal approval rates. Equal chance of a yes for those who would repay. A yes that means the same thing in both groups. Each sounds like a minimum standard, and any two of them can be arranged. All three cannot, whenever the two groups' base rates differ, and the reason is an identity rather than an ideology. In this lab you will try to break that result and fail on purpose, then find the one change that dissolves it.
Skills it develops
How it is assessed
3 graded challenges inside the lab, and 8 questions at the end that check the idea rather than the clicks. Every attempt is saved, so a retry after a mistake counts as the learning it is.